Metacognition

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.

– Charles Darwin, 1871

Per my request for a “productive” summer my new advisor at A&M sent me a data set to figure out. After some preliminary analyses, our data looks like what is already found in the literature. Let me explain, Dr. Geraci asked her post-secondary students to predict what they would earn on each of 5 exams immediately before taking the exam. As an incentive to be as accurate as possible, she gave them a few points extra credit if they were close. What I found was that people are not good guessers, or they have poor metacognition. However, this is not a new idea. Furthermore, there seems to be interaction, where the bottom quartile performers grossly overestimate their performance, and top quartile performers underestimate how well they think they’ll do. The question is, why are people so poor at guessing? Is it because (a) the information necessary to make accurate guesses is not available or (b) the information necessary to make accurate guesses IS available and participants choose to ignore it?

Not surprisingly, there is evidence that supports both theories. Recenlty Gramzow and colleagues 2008 found overestimation feels good per vagus nerve activity (i.e. Respiratory sinus arrhythmia) which supports theory (b). Our data supports (a) simply because their is an incentive to be correct and people are still not guessing well. However, the gravity of a “few points extra credit” is suspect. Sounds ripe for more probing.

Big Happenings Pictures

Big Happenings (pictures to come)

Some major things have happened recently… Briefly, Meagan and I were engaged to be married, I graduated with Master’s Degree, set up living arrangments in Texas, vacationed/skiied in Utah, and finally I received a new laptop computer and get this, I’m running linux/ubuntu 7.10.

On our engagement: While the topic of marriage has been talked about, Meagan was not expecting I “pop” the question when I did. We were on a bike ride, our “Lenze route,” I asked for her hand and asked her to marry my whilst riding. She was a bit taken aback but eventually said “Yes.” We plan to be married in June 2009 most likely in Sioux Falls, SD.

On my graduation: FYI: Meagan also graduated. The ceremony was nice, the cake at our open house was nicer. If you’re reading this you most likely already know I’m headed to Texas A&M to enroll in the cognitive doctoral program.

On our Texas trip/Vacation: We graduated on Saturday, we left for Texas on Monday. We found a place to live in College Station, TX called Scandia. We signed a 9 month lease and intend to purchase a house following the end of our lease. We returned to Emporia Thursday and drove to Breckenridge, CO Friday for a good friend Glen’s wedding. I was able to reaccquaint myself with my college buddies (Josh, Tim, Mark, Matt) and introduce Meagan to all of them. It was a good time, we ate well and drank a fair amount. We left Breckenridge Sunday and drove to Snowbird, Utah where we rendezvoused with my family. I skiied, it was awesome. Conditions on the slopes weren’t great and the lift people tried to discourage me, they succeeded once but I went up after some thinking. The only open routes were blues and blacks. I’d skiied blues before but never blacks, I fell twice. Other happenings in Utah include plenty of hottube and steamroom time, my first yoga class, horseback riding on Antelope Island in the Great Salt Lake, shopping in Park City, UT and other miscellaneous activities.

On my new laptop: I purchased a new Dell Laptop withouth Windows or Microsoft Office. Thus, my current OS in Linux/Ubuntu 7.10! My rationale for not ordering Windows etc… was that I can get it cheap through A&M, however, I’m not enrolled and not eligible for the software benefits. Therefore, I will run Linux until I’m enrolled and maybe longer depending on how we get along… Right now I’m downloading the ubuntu upgrade, 8.04.

If you have tips about running Ubuntu, please give em’ up.